Somebody can’t do without Iran

Military operations in Gaza City is continued to be the main subject of international policy today. In spite of all international mediators’ efforts, the conflict doesn’t cease but its participants burn with hate towards each other. It will be recalled that both sides of conflict declined UN cease-fire resolution, had been adopted in January.

Today one can say there is an actual breakdown of talks, has been organized through the mediation of Egypt. On the 12th of January information about positive steps in negotiations between Israel representatives and Hamas came from Cairo. But there was a matter only of some abstract mutual wish to «stop bloodshed».

There is concrete information - Hamas representatives have declared: they will not agree to any talks until Israel will put an end to the operation «Cast Lead» and Israeli military leave the Gaza territory. Besides the Anti-Zionistic resistance leaders insist on stopping of Gaza blockade and demand opening of check-points at the border.

Such demands were equated to sabotage by the majority of negotiations participants from the sides of Israel and Egypt. Some political observers talk that Egypt has given an informal consent to prolongation of Israel military operation. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon went to Cairo with the view of «saving» situation.

In the meantime some sources spread information that new forces have been already involved in the conflict, but indirectly still. Last Monday Israeli newspaper «Jurasulem Post» published information, with citing to anonymous sources from among Egypt mediators, under which Hamas was under pressure from Iran side. Iranian leadership allegedly threatens Hamas with deprivation of support, in case of its armistice with Israel. According to publication, the Speaker of Iranian Parliament Ali Larijani visited Damask to carry out the consultation with Hamas Leader Khaled Meshaal, and then such position of Iranian leadership had been expounded.

Teheran hasn’t made a formal statement yet. So the publication in «Jurasulem Post» looks unexpectedly against the background of Teheran neutral position in whole. All the more Israeli newspaper is sole source of such information.

The expert of data portal «Eurasia» Lev Kajdan considers this publication as the part of Israeli provocation in point of Iran. And the purpose of such provocation is to discredit Islamic country «charging» by the West as it is. Easily Iran is involved in a diplomatic intrigue carrying around Palestine – Lev Kajdan is sure - but the role of Iran is not the same as Israel is trying to impose on it.

«Americans leave Iraq, for Obama this question is already decided», - expert says. – «For all this there is a danger of a rebellion, Sunni opposition can stirring up against president of Iraq Jalal Talabani. This opposition is former Hussein surroundings, who were connected not with «hamas» Palestinian but with supporters of Yasser Arafat. President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is interested in power of Talabani, because hi is Shiite. I think Iran promised Mahmoud Abbas not to interfere in Palestine, and Fatah doesn’t interfere in Iraq on the side of opposition».

The expert also takes notice that in fact there is no direct connection between Iran and Hamas like a «giving orders» - how Israel wants to represent this connection. «There are different versions of Islam. On the one hand there is The Muslim Brothers, on the other hand Shiism – the state ideology of today’s Iran. From the world outlook point of view these are polar things in practice. It is clear that Hezbollah is allied to Iran. But there is a situational interaction between Iran and Hamas. Such interaction works not like Anti-Zionistic resistance but to counterbalance Fatah. But nowadays situation shows us that such a counterbalance doesn’t work, so there is no reason for Teheran neither to strain relations with Fatah nor to press on Hamas», - resumes Kajdan.

It should be added that Teheran is always under the treat of American-Israeli invasion. So it is doubtful whether Teheran is ready to support openly war against Israel. Most likely it will be profitable for Israel to involve Iran into this conflict to get one more reason legitimating possible invasion. Not long ago there was information in a press that Israel more than once had tried to call to Washington for carrying out military operation against Iran.

Till now cases for imaginary Iranian nuclear deterrent don’t seem to be enough. After unsuccessful Iraq campaign United States don’t hurry to a new war slough. But if Iran will be caught in anti-Israeli «aggression» even indirectly, Israel and USA will stand a batter chance to make an incursion into Iran territory.

If our reasons are right such situation are going to take a place soon – before the expiration of the term of office of Bush administration. There will be need in new contracts with new president. But now the plan of incursion has worked out in details.

There is no strong reason. And if Teheran doesn’t hurry to give such a reason, it will be logical to provoke it. Whether it will be possible for Israel to carry out such a combination – we will know very soon.